Prediction in a socio-hydrological world

Srinivasan, Veena and Sanderson, M and Garcia, M and Konar, M and Blöschl, G and Sivapalan, M (2016) Prediction in a socio-hydrological world. Hydrological Science Journal. pp. 1-8.

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Abstract

Water resource management involves public investments with long-ranging impacts that traditional prediction approaches cannot address. These are increasingly being critiqued because (1)there is an absence of feedbacks between water and society; (2) the models are created by domain experts who hand them to decision makers to implement; and (3) they fail to account for global forces on local water resources. Socio-hydrological models that explicitly account for feedbacks between water and society at multiple scales and facilitate stakeholder participation can address these concerns. However, they require a fundamental change in how we think about prediction. We suggest that, in the context of long-range predictions, the goal is not scenarios that present a snapshot of the world at some future date, but rather projection of alternative, plausible and co-evolving trajectories of the socio-hydrological system. This will both yield insights into cause–effect relationships and help stakeholders identify safe or desirable operating space.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright of this article belongs to Taylor and Francis
Subjects: C Publications by ATREEians > G Journal Papers
Divisions: Publications by ATREEians > Journal Papers
Depositing User: Eprints Admin
Date Deposited: 19 Dec 2016 06:51
Last Modified: 19 Dec 2016 06:51
URI: http://eprints.atree.org/id/eprint/447

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